129-143

The present and the future of the population of Greece

• Βαλαώρας, Βασίλειος Γ.

The recent demographic transition from the wasteful to the controlled phase of human replacement in Greece (fig. 1 ), was firmly established only in the urban population, while that of the rural areas was regressed to a rapid deterioration (fig. 2). This was due to an intensive out - migration of young peasants of both sexes, which caused a progressive fall of the birth - rate and a gradual rise of the death - rate due to the incidental aging of the population. Imprinted in the 1981 population census was a deficit in rural Greece of about 100.000 men and 200.000 women in the age groups 20 to 40 years (fig. 3) and also, a smaller child population and an inflated group of those beyond the age of 65 years old.From 1980 onwards, a severe subnatality occured also in the urban population, with the disquitening effect, the falling of Greece’ s total fertility –rate from 2.365 births in 1975 to only 1.677 in 1985. This alarming event is connected with a gradual deterioration of living conditions in Greece, as manifested by a similar fall observed in the per capita national income, in the losses sustained by the merchant marine (fig. 4) and other indicators. All that leads to a much distorted and unstable population pyramid, as projected for the year 2000 (fig. 5). However, the mainly reproducing female population (between 20 and 35 years old, dotted bands in fig. 5) is still unimpaired, a fact that permits the hope of a gradual demographic recuperation, provided that adequateres torative measures are soon to be taken by the state and the people of this small country.

• Other social sciences

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