The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an inflation targeting country : the case of Turkey

Part of : International journal of economic sciences and applied research ; Vol.6, No.1, 2013, pages 7-18

Issue:
Pages:
7-18
Author:
Abstract:
The possible short-run trade-off between the inflation (gap) and the output (gap) remains a critical policy issue for any emerging economy; particularly when an implicit or an explicit inflation targeting monetary policy is considered. The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) has recently set up a framework on the trade-off between the inflation (gap) and the difference between the actual output and potential (efficient) output under the assumption of real wage rigidities. In this paper, we estimate the NKPC based on this framework for the Turkish economy over a period of implicit and explicit inflation targeting monetary policy. The results from Generalized Methods of Moments (G MM) estimation suggest that empirical findings are consistent with the theoretical background and the parameter restrictions are satisfied.
Subject:
Subject (LC):
Keywords:
New Keynesian Phillips Curve, real wage rigidity, short-run trade-off, Turkey, developing economies
Notes:
Περιέχει πίνακες και βιβλιογραφία
References (1):
  1. Andrews, D.W., 1991, ‘Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariancematrix estimation ’, Econometrica, 59, pp. 817-858.Bardsen, G., Jansen, E.S. and Nymoen, R., 2004, ‘Econometric evaluation of the newKeynesian Phillips curve’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 66, pp. 671-686.Batini, N., Jackson, B. and Nickell, S., 2005, ‘An open-economy new Keynesian Phillipscurve for the U.K.’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 52, pp. 1061-1071.Bekaert, G., Cho, S. and Moreno, A., 2010, ‘New Keynesian macroeconomics and termstructure’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42, pp. 33-62.Blanchard, O.J. and Gali, J., 2007, ‘Real wage rigidities and the new-Keynesian model’,Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39, pp. 35-65.Boug, P, Cappelen, A. and Swensen, A.R., 2010, ‘The new Keynesian Phillips curverevisited’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 34, pp. 858-874Cagli, E.C., Mandaci, P.E. and Kahyaoglu, Η., 2011, ‘Volatility shifts and persistence invariance: evidence from the sector indices of Istanbul Stock Exchange’, InternationalJournal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research, 4, 3, pp. 119-140.Calvo, G., 1983, ‘Staggered prices in a utility maximizing framework’, Jo urna!of MonetaryEconomics, 12, pp. 383-398.Catik, A.N., Martin, C. and Onder, A.O., 2011, ‘Relative price variability and the Phillipscurve: evidence from Turkey’, Journal of Economic Studies, 38, pp. 546-561.Christensen, J.H.E., Lopez, J.A. and Rudebusch, G.D., 2010, ‘Inflation expectations andrisk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields’, Journal ofMoney, Credit and Banking, 42, pp. 143-178.Cicek, S., 2012, ‘Globalization and flattening of Phillips curve in Turkey between 1987 and2007’,Economic Modelling, 12, pp. 1655-1661.Clarida, R., Gali, J. andGertler, M., 1999, ‘The science of monetary policy: anew Keynesianperspective’, Journal of Economic Literature, 37, pp. 1661-1707.Cobb, C.W. and Douglas, P.H., 1928, ‘A theory of production’, American EconomicReview, 18, pp. 139-165.Fanelli, L., 2008, ‘Testing the new Keynesian Phillips curve through Vector Autoregressivemodels: results from the Euro area’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 70,pp. 53-66.Fanelli, L. and Palomba, G., 2011, ‘Simulation based tests of forward-looking modelsunder VAR learning dynamics’, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 26, pp. 762-782.Friedman, M., 1968, ‘The role of monetary policy ’, American Economic Review, 58, pp.1-17.Gali, J. and Gertler, M., 1999, ‘Inflation dynamics: a structural econometric analysis’,Journal of Monetary Economics, 44, pp. 233-258.Gali, J., Gertler, M. and Lopez-Salido, D., 2001, ‘European inflation dynamics ’, EuropeanEconomic Review, 45, pp. 1237-1270.Gali, J., Gertler, M. and Lopez-Salido, D., 2005, ‘Robustness of the estimates of the hybridnew Keynesian Phillips CurvG, Journal of Monetary Economics, 52, pp. 1107-1118.Gozgor, G., 2012, ‘Inflation targeting and monetary policy rules: further evidence from thecase of Turkey’, Journal of Applied Finance and Banking, 2, pp. 127-136.Gurkaynak, R.S. and Wright, J.H., 2012, ‘Macroeconomics and the term structure', JournalofEconomic Literature, 50, pp. 331-367.Hansen, L., 1982, ‘Large sample properties ofGeneralized Method of Moments estimators’,Econometrica, 50, pp. 1029-1054.Hasanov, M., Arac, A. and Telatar, F., 2010, ‘Nonlinearity and structural stability in thePhillips curve: evidence from Turkey’, Economic Modelling, 27, pp. 1103-1115.Joyce, M.A.S., Lildholdt, P. and Sorensen, S., 2010, ‘Extracting inflation expectations andinflation risk premia from the term structure: a joint model of the UK nominal and realyield curves’, Journal of Banking and Finance, 34, pp. 281-294.Karanassou, M., Sala, H. and Snower, D.J.,2010, ‘Phillips curves and unemployment dynamics:a critique and a holistic perspective’, Journal of Economic Surveys, 24, pp. 1-51.umar, M., 2010, ‘A time-varying parameter Vector Autoregression model forforecasting emerging market exchange rates’, International Journal of EconomicSciences and Applied Research, 3, pp. 21-39.Kurmann, A., 2007, ‘VAR-based estimation of Euler equations with an application to newKeynesian pricing’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31, pp. 767-796.Kurozumi, T. and Van Zandweghe, W., 2010, ‘Labor market search, the Taylor principleand indeterminacy’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 57, pp. 851-858.Kustepeli, Y., 2005, ‘A comprehensive short-run analysis of a (possible) Turkish Phillipscurve’, Applied Economics, 37, pp. 581-591.Kuttner, K. and Robinson, T, 2010, ‘Understanding the flattening Phillips curve’, NorthAmerican Journal of Economics and Finance, 21, pp. 110-125.Linde, J., 2005, ‘Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: a full information maximumlikelihood approach’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 52, pp. 1135-1149.Lucas, R.E. Jr., 1972, ‘Expectations and the neutrality of money ’, Journal of EconomicTheory, 4, pp. 103-124.Mavroeidis, S., 2006, ‘Testing the new Keynesian Phillips curve without assumingidentification ’, Brown University Economic Papers, 13.Mazali, A.A. and Divino, J.A., 2010, ‘Real wage rigidity and the new Phillips curve: theBrazilian case’, Revista Brasileira de Economia, 64, pp. 291-306.Mihailov, A., Rumler, F., and Scharler, J., 2011, ‘The small open-economy new KeynesianPhillips curve: empirical evidence and implied inflation dynamics’, Open EconomiesReview, 22, pp. 317-337.Newey, W. and West, K.D., 1987, ‘A simple positive semi-definite, heteroskedasticity andautocorrelation consistent covariance matrix’, Econometrica, 55, pp. 703-708.Newey, W. and West, K.D., 1994, ‘Automatic lag selection in covariance matrix estimation’,Review of Economic Studies, 61, pp. 631-653.Nymoen, R., Swensen, A.R. and Tveter, E., 2012, ‘Interpreting the evidence for newKeynesian models of inflation dynamics’, Journal of Macroeconomics, 34, pp. 253-263.Onder, A.O., 2004, ‘Forecasting inflation in emerging markets by using Phillips curve andalternative time series models’, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 40, pp. 71-82.Onder, A.O., 2009, ‘The stability of the Turkish Phillips curve and alternative regimeshifting models’, Applied Economics, 41, pp. 2597-2604.Phelps, E.S., 1967, ‘Phillips curve, expectations of inflation and optimal unemploymentover time’, Economica, 34, pp. 254-281.Phelps, E.S., 1968, ‘Money-wage dynamics and labor market equilibrium’, Journal ofPolitical Economy, 76, pp. 678-711.Phillips, A.W., 1958, ‘The relationship between unemployment and the rate of change ofmoney wages in the United Kingdom 1861-1957 ’, Economica, 25, pp. 283-299.Rotemberg, J.J., 1982, ‘Sticky prices in the United States’, Journal of Political Economy,90, pp. 1187-1211.Rudd, J. and Whelan, K., 2005, ‘New tests of the new Keynesian Phillips curve’, Journalof Monetary Economics, 52, pp. 1167-118Rudd, J. and Whelan, K., 2006, ‘Can rational expectations sticky-price models explaininflation dynamics?’, American Economic Review, 96, pp. 303-320.Rudd, J. and Whelan, K., 2007, ‘Modelling inflation dynamics: a critical review of recentresearch’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39, pp. 155-170.Rumler, F., 2007, ‘Estimates of the open economy new Keynesian Phillips curve for Euroarea countries’, Open Economies Review, 18, pp. 427-451.Saz, G., 2011, ‘The Turkish Phillips curve experience and the new Keynesian Phillipscurve: a conceptualization and application of a novel measure for marginal costs’,International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 63, pp. 8-45.Yazgan, M.E. and Yilmazkuday, H., 2005, ‘Inflation dynamics of Turkey: a structuralestimation’, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 9, pp. 1-13.